Preseason Rankings
West Coast
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
8 Gonzaga 88.1%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 4 14 - 2 +17.1      +10.1 5 +7.0 23 75.1 50 0.0 1 0.0 1
19 St. Mary's 67.9%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 12 - 4 +13.3      +7.1 24 +6.2 30 60.0 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 BYU 32.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 6 +8.0      +6.5 31 +1.5 124 76.7 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 San Francisco 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 8 +3.7      +2.8 94 +0.9 133 66.4 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 Pepperdine 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 8 - 8 +3.4      +4.0 74 -0.6 184 74.6 57 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Santa Clara 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 7 - 9 +2.0      +0.7 147 +1.3 127 66.1 251 0.0 1 0.0 1
149 Loyola Marymount 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 7 - 9 +0.8      -0.9 205 +1.8 117 60.2 346 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 San Diego 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 6 - 10 -0.1      -1.9 232 +1.8 119 66.8 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
247 Pacific 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 4 - 12 -4.7      -4.1 290 -0.6 185 64.1 302 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Portland 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 4 - 12 -6.9      -3.9 285 -3.1 258 67.4 216 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.6 64.4 22.7 7.8 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.2 34.4 35.0 15.6 7.6 4.1 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
BYU 3.7 10.2 19.1 24.4 17.5 11.8 7.4 4.8 3.1 1.4 0.5
San Francisco 5.1 2.9 8.1 14.7 16.9 16.3 14.3 11.3 8.5 4.9 2.2
Pepperdine 5.0 3.2 9.3 15.9 17.6 16.0 13.3 10.3 7.5 4.7 2.1
Santa Clara 5.6 1.5 5.3 10.8 14.8 16.1 16.1 13.4 11.0 7.4 3.4
Loyola Marymount 6.2 0.8 3.5 7.5 11.2 14.0 15.9 15.6 14.8 10.8 6.0
San Diego 6.6 0.6 2.7 6.2 9.2 12.2 15.3 16.4 16.6 12.9 7.8
Pacific 7.8 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.5 6.7 9.6 13.0 17.5 23.8 21.8
Portland 8.5 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 9.8 15.3 23.5 37.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 14 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.8 6.8 10.9 17.0 22.1 21.5 14.6
St. Mary's 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.5 9.1 12.8 16.8 18.1 16.0 11.3 4.4
BYU 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.7 7.4 10.4 13.3 15.2 15.0 12.1 8.8 5.1 2.0 0.5
San Francisco 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.1 11.3 13.2 14.1 13.6 11.8 8.4 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Pepperdine 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.9 7.3 10.4 12.4 14.1 13.3 12.5 9.1 6.4 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.0
Santa Clara 7 - 9 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.2 7.5 10.5 13.1 14.4 14.1 11.5 9.6 6.3 3.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 9 0.3 1.6 3.8 6.8 10.6 13.1 14.1 14.0 12.5 9.6 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego 6 - 10 0.5 2.2 4.7 8.8 11.5 14.6 14.9 13.6 10.7 7.7 5.2 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pacific 4 - 12 2.7 7.5 12.3 15.7 15.9 13.9 11.5 8.2 5.7 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 4 - 12 6.7 13.8 16.8 16.9 14.8 11.4 8.4 5.4 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 64.4% 51.1 11.9 1.3 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 34.4% 22.8 10.2 1.3 0.1 0.0
BYU 10.2% 5.6 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 2.9% 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 3.2% 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 88.1% 52.1% 36.0% 4   11.0 11.9 9.9 10.3 7.6 6.3 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 6.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.9 75.2%
St. Mary's 67.9% 28.2% 39.7% 10   3.1 4.9 4.5 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 6.5 7.8 9.4 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 32.1 55.3%
BYU 32.1% 9.4% 22.7% 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.9 7.6 4.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 67.9 25.0%
San Francisco 8.8% 3.1% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.5 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.2 5.9%
Pepperdine 6.5% 3.0% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.5 3.6%
Santa Clara 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.9 1.2%
Loyola Marymount 2.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4 1.4%
San Diego 2.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.0 1.1%
Pacific 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 88.1% 4.1% 86.5% 67.4% 41.3% 24.0% 12.7% 6.6% 3.4%
St. Mary's 67.9% 7.8% 64.3% 42.6% 21.0% 9.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.8%
BYU 32.1% 8.0% 27.8% 13.4% 4.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
San Francisco 8.8% 2.9% 7.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 6.5% 1.8% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 3.1% 0.6% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 2.6% 0.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 2.0% 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 19.2 53.2 24.8 2.8 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.0 24.5 54.1 19.7 1.7 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 88.0% 1.3 12.0 50.1 33.9 3.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 58.7% 0.7 41.3 48.6 9.8 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 33.9% 0.4 66.1 31.6 2.3 0.0
Final Four 17.4% 0.2 82.6 16.9 0.5
Final Game 8.8% 0.1 91.2 8.7 0.0
Champion 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3